Earlier this week, BostonNow published a story that all but declared Ogonowski's defeat in his Senate bid to unseat Senator John Kerry. They based their assessment solely on how much money each candidate has in their coffers. Surely, if you look at things in terms of dollars and cents, thing look bleak for Ogonowski, who only has $44,000 in campaign cash on hand compared to $10.1 million for Kerry. But I've been saying for some time now that no opponent to John Kerry should be discounted, and the BostonNOW article totally ignores various known facts about Kerry's vulnerability. For starters, last year a 7News-Suffolk poll found "that 56 percent of Massachusetts registered voters want to give someone else a shot at Kerry's Senate seat." Not exactly good news for Kerry. I'm not aware of any polls putting Kerry and Ogonowski head to head... but polls have shown Kerry in serious trouble against the other GOP candidate, Jeff Beatty.
Just 60 days after forming an exploratory committee to defeat John Kerry for the US Senate in 2008, Jeff Beatty is receiving favorable support from voters across Massachusetts. A July poll conducted by the renowned Zogby organization shows Jeff Beatty to be in a virtual tie with the junior senator and former presidential candidate.Considering how close the Tsongas-Ogonowski congressional race was, and given Kerry's clear vulnerability, it's not unreasonable to assume that Ogonowski would poll just as well against Kerry as Beatty has... and that only means trouble for John Kerry.Zogby provided respondents with basic biographical information on John Kerry, Jeff Beatty and other Republican candidates and then asked “who would you vote for?” Results in the head-to-head competition were:
- First; Kerry 48 % Beatty 45% (3 point margin – error margin 4.1% = a tie)
- Second; Kerry 56 %, Healey 37% (19 point loss)
- Third; Kerry 61%, Card 29% (32 point loss)
Against Jeff Beatty, the incumbent’s vote percentage plummeted below 50%--with Beatty in a virtual tie for the Senate seat, while Kerry rose significantly when pitted against the other Republican contenders. Results show that Beatty has rapidly become the front runner in the race to defeat John Kerry. The Zogby survey consisted of 41% Democrats, 20% Republicans and 38% unenrolled or independents.
