A new 7News-Suffolk poll says that 56 percent of Massachusetts registered voters want to give someone else a shot at Kerry's Senate seat. Only 37 percent say he should run again.
This is clearly bad news for Kerry, and, according the Boston Herald's Wayne Woodlief, "very good news for any well-heeled Republican who might try a run against Long Jawn. Or even for somebody who isn’t rich but is [...] 'an aggressive, strong politician' who could see the national GOP open its coffers if Kerry’s numbers stay that low. Especially with control of the Senate at stake."
Sure, this offers a very small glimmer of hope for the Massachusetts Republican Party. But, Kerry's vulnerability may also inspire some Massachusetts congressmen with large campaign coffers to take Kerry out in the primaries. Now, if Kerry survives the primaries and the Mass GOP offers a viable candidate to oppose him, the seat could very well become competitive... certainly the most competitive race for Kerry in quite some time.
The Massachusetts GOP will definitely recruit someone to challenge Kerry. The right candidate (basically anyone but Ken Chase) might have a chance to give Kerry a run for his wife's money. But, should the race end up being between Kerry and a potential GOP opponent, Kerry's low poll numbers like won't be enough to ensure his defeat in a general election.
As we know, Kerry is up for reelection next year, a presidential election year. This would likely hurt Kerry in a primary election since presidential elections boost turnout (and clearly registered voters want a change), but would only help him in the general election, since even higher turnout in November will make it harder for a Republican to prevail. Is the national GOP really going to invest in a campaign for a normally safe Democratic Senate seat during a presidential campaign season?
I suspect any GOP challenger to Kerry for his Senate will have rely solely on support for the Massachusetts GOP with only nominal support from the national GOP... they will have bigger and safer fish to fry in 2008.
The timing is certainly something that cannot be ignored. Romney's "Reform Team" in 2004, while giving several Democrats a serious challenge, did nothing to increase Republican representation in this state, largely due to the presidential election.
The other scenario to consider is if a current Massachusetts congressman decides to challenge Kerry -- which is certainly possible given his poll numbers. Should Kerry get knocked out in the primary, the resulting open seat in the House would provide a better opportunity for the Massachusetts GOP -- which sees more opportunity in open seats.
